After a year of turmoil, lockdowns and new waves of infections, the vaccine offers some hope for a return to something like ‘normality’. But how long will it really take to vaccinate the UK? And what are some of the challenges we face?
At 7bridges we use our artificial intelligence to model, plan and optimise the execution of complex logistics networks. We’ve used our cutting-edge technology to simulate the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccines in the UK, to gain insights into the potential timelines and challenges faced in the quest to reach herd immunity and return to 'normality'.
This first simulation looks at the first phase of the rollout, which is targeting everyone over the age of 50 years old, executed in 7 ‘waves’ and considers the impact of the UK's new 'single jab' strategy and how this changes the prognosis for the country.
The simulation shows that in a best-case scenario, the 2020 strategy could have seen 70% of Phase 1 recipients immunised by their first dose in the week commencing the 26th April.
The new strategy brings forward this milestone to the week commencing the 5th April, despite lower throughput across vaccination sites.
Who is being vaccinated in Phase 1?
Phase 1 includes everyone over the age of 50, and will be executed in seven waves:
| Wave | Who? |
| 1 | People aged over 80 and over |
| 2 | People aged 75 and over |
| 3 | People aged 70 and over and those who are clinically extremely vulnerable |
| 4 | People aged 65 and over |
| 5 | People aged 60 and over |
| 6 | People aged 55 and over |
| 7 | People aged 50 and over |
For the purpose of this simulation, frontline workers and the clinically vulnerable are not included, as there is no reliable locational data for these groups available.
*mass vaccination sites expected to increase to 50. This ramp up is accounted for in the simulation.
By using the information about vaccination sites, and population data from the ONS, we are able to simulate the vaccine demand for each location.
Our artificial intelligence considered how much vaccine needs to be available at each of the government selected sites in order to vaccinate people.
It did this by looking at population density, and the closest hospital and GP to people in each local authority. The simulation shows a distinct regional demand difference between Local Authorities, for Phase 1 recipients of the vaccine.
Based on the reported procurement of the Pfizer and Oxford vaccines, and the capacity of each vaccination site to administer them, we can simulate the projected use of each drug in the first half of the year.
The Pfizer spike in March, is when the second dose is now expected to be administered to the first wave recipients, based on the 2021 vaccination strategy.
Using population data from the ONS, the 7bridges artificial intelligence simulates that the Isles of Scilly will be the first local authority to reach a 70% herd immunity milestone, the week commencing March 15th 2021.
This is significantly earlier than other areas with a greater number of people to vaccinate, such as South Staffordshire which the simulation predicts could reach a 70% immunisation rate the week of May 10th 2021.
If you're interested in how the 7bridges technology can simulate complex scenarios, such as the COVID-19 vaccination, drop us a line.
The average distance that most recipients in the first phase will need to travel 20.4 miles to their nearest vaccination point.
However, there is significant variation between Local Authorities. People in the isles of Scilly will need to travel 118 miles on average to receive their vaccinations.
Even in a less remote location, such as Scarborough, people will need to travel 73 miles, whereas people in Manchester will need to travel just under 2 miles on average and in Exeter, less than 1 mile.
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The simulation raises questions about the accessibility challenges faced by phase 1 recipients of the vaccine, Many people in th earlier waves of the programme are less mobile and may not have access to transport.
How will the Phase 1 recipients in more remote locations be supported in travelling to the nearest GP or hospital site?
When people are unable to get to their vaccination appointment, it will cause drug wastage and, of course, delay the time for that wave to reach herd immunity.
In a best-case scenario, what is the timescale to reach herd immunity abasing Phase 1 vaccine recipients? Or, in other words, when might some parts of life 'return to normal'?
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The truth is, this timescale depends in numerous factors and disruptors; some of which are outside the control of the UK government. When we first simulated the rollout, in late December 2020, Pfizer was the only vaccine being administered, and the Oxford vaccine wasn't expected to be rolled out until mid-February the following year. The UK Government was following the manufacturer's advice about a two dose strategy with 21 days between 1 and 2. In a best-case scenario, the 7bridges artificial intelligence predicted that 'herd immunity' - 70% of the 46 million people in Phase 1 - would be reached in the wee commencing 26th April 2021. |
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Herd Immunity |
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2020 Strategy w/c 26th April |
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2021 Strategy w/c 5th April |
The new strategy in 2021, delays the second dose by 12 weeks. The Oxford vaccine has also been introduced to the UK's inoculation programme earlier than expected, with the first jab being administered on 4th January to Brian Pinker.
Our simulation shows that the new strategy could bring forward the 70% 'herd immunity' threshold by 3 weeks, to the week commencing 5th April 2021, if 'ideal conditions' are met.
Vaccination simulation - Wave 1 to 7 vaccination timeline, 2020 strategy
Vaccination simulation - Wave 1 to 7 vaccination timeline, 2021 strategy
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What is 'herd immunity'? |
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Herd immunity refers to a proportion of a population, that once immunised, protects the wider population from illness (as there are fewer human hosts to spread the disease). Different diseases have varied thresholds for herd immunity:
A specific herd immunity threshold for COVID-19 is as yet unknown, but according to JAMA - American Medical Network, it is likely to be between 70 - 90%. It's also worth remembering that immunity takes a couple of weeks to develop after the first jab its administered, meaning people could still be infected if exposed to the virus shortly before or after their vaccination. |
The speed at which UK's first cohort of vaccine recipients might reach herd immunity can be limited by many things, including:
Limited vaccine availability
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The UK Government has ordered 100 million doses of the Oxford vaccine but just 4 million doses are expected to be available in the first quarter of 2021. The BBC reported that Pfizer has struggled to secure the raw ingredients needed to produce enough of the drug. |
Missed appointments and vaccine non-completion
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Before the pandemic, 1 in 20 NHS appointments were missed in the UK. In the time of extreme disruption to travel, jobs and childcare, this figure could conceivably be higher. And, even if a recipient arrives for their first jab, they may not return for the second that is required for the Pfizer and Oxford. In other two-step vaccination programmes, such as HPV, a significant proportion of recipients fail to complete immunisation as they don't take their second dose. |
Vaccine efficacy rates
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There have been questions over the efficacy rates of the vaccines, especially in relation to the 2021 strategy. The manufacturers of both the Pfizer and Oxford vaccines have said there is no evidence that demonstrates the recipient will still be protected if the booster jab is delayed. |
Post-Brexit delays
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The Pfizer vaccine is manufactured in Belgium, and as if January first, will be crossing iut of Europe and into the UK. It is possible that there will be significant delays in transporting and releasing goods across borders. A contingency plan to airlift the vaccine into the UK may be a necessity. |
Storage and administration challenges
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If the UK government does adopt an intelligent distribution plan - such as the one simulated by 7bridges - that delivers the correct volume of doses required to each administering site, there is still no guarantee that each site will be able to store the vaccines at the right temperature, or have the capacity to administer them. There is likely to be significant vaccine wastage as a result, which may lead to delays in the rollout. |
These are just some of the possible disruptors to the success of the vaccination programme. Unforeseen circumstances, a mutation of the virus which is unaffected by the current vaccination drugs, or so called 'Black Swan' events can of course play a part in our ability to reach herd immunity.
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The rise of the anti-vaxxers |
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In December 2020, ITV News reported that there are 5.35 million UK followers of anti-vaccine accounts on social media. These accounts that share false and misleading information about the vaccine, may encourage some people to refuse the jab.
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Surveys show that between 5-30% of the UK population might not take the vaccine - and that there is a particularly distinct variation in anti-vixx sentiment among local authorities. 7bridges used the results of a nationally representative survey to model the potential impact of anti-vaxxers on the 2021 vaccination strategy.
If people fail to attend their vaccination appointment, there will be significant wastage of stock - which will in turn, increase the volume of required vaccinations.
Simulation of anti-vaxxers impact on the UK's immunisation programme:
It's not just the availability of a vaccine in different local authorities, the population density of different age groups, or the accessibility of the vaccination sites themselves - but the level of anti-vccxx sentiment inherent in the community.
A nationally-representative COVID-19 vaccination acceptability study ('CoVAccS'), shows that the region in which recipient lives is almost twice as important as their age when determining a person's anti-vaxxers sentiment.
7bridges has taken this into account in the simulation of the first phase of the vaccination programme, and the results are stark.
2021 strategy - people immunised by local authority (sample)
Some local authorities could still reach a max immunisation rate of 89% of the Phase 1 population (e.g. Hartlepool) whilst others only have 58% (e.g. Clackmannanshire) when anti-vaxxers sentiment is accounted for.
2021 UK Vaccination SimulationImpact of anti-vaxxers on immunisation in Local Authorities |
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Location |
Max projected immunisation rate |
Projected immunisation ate - accounting for anti-vaxx sentiment |
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City of London |
95% w/c May 31st |
95% w/c May 3rd |
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Hartlepool |
95% w/c June 7th |
89% w/c May 10th |
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Dover |
93% w/c June 7th |
67% w/c May 10th |
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North Ayrshire |
93% w/c June 7th |
63% w/c May 10th |
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North Warwickshire |
94% w/c May 31st |
59% w/c May 3rd |
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Clackmannanshire |
92% w/c June 7th |
58% w/c May 10th |
Read more about the story in:
Wired UK:
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/coronavirus-vaccine-uk-distribution
Guardian: